By Adrian Grigorian
Edited by Danika Suh
In less than 100 days from now, it will be November 3rd, the date of the 2020 general election. This election is coming at a time of immense turmoil - from the COVID-19 pandemic to incredible amounts of nationwide protests, that have been going on for months and show no sign of slowing down. Usually, in times of suffering, the incumbent president is a lock for reelection, but this time, things are looking very different for President Trump.
All signs as of right now point to a catastrophic loss for President Trump in November. Looking at national polls, Trump is currently down by nearly 9 points to Joe Biden. To put that into perspective, Donald Trump was within 1 point of Hillary Clinton in late July of 2016, according to national polls by RealClearPolitics. Trump also currently has a 56% disapproval rating which is incredibly low, especially right before an election. I can go on forever on how things aren’t looking up for President Trump as of now, but this fact is the real killer to his campaign. He is losing in virtually every single swing state, which includes Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina. However, he is in a shocking statistical tie with Joe Biden in Texas. Trump won every single one of these states in 2016, but has not contained a single state as a lock for his reelection. The fact that a state like Texas, a seemingly easy Republican win, is in question in November, is a terrible sign for President Trump to say the least.
This has also likely fueled the, dare I say, desperate rhetoric that has been coming from the White House. Trump has been trying to discredit the polls and says that this is the same story as 2016. This could not be further from the truth. Trump is losing by big margins in 6 states that he won in 2016 and Hillary Clinton was winning by 2 points in National polls, while Joe Biden is winning by 9. Now, this sudden united hatred towards the POTUS has not come out of nowhere. The past 7 months of his presidency has been one failure after another in the eyes of the American public, going all the way back to January with the near war with Iran, 56% of the American public disapproved of his handling of the crisis. Thankfully, that situation did not escalate any further, but it was a bad omen and sign of how this White House would handle upcoming crises’.
Then, came COVID-19. The pandemic has damaged the entire world significantly, but the United States has clearly gotten the worst of it. Trump's approval rating truly began to take a nosedive around mid April, when the pandemic was at its worst, and it has continued to get worse as the administration has stopped having daily press briefings and has seemed to give up on handling the pandemic. The mass movements and black lives matter protests all over the country could have helped, had he handled it with compassion and understanding, especially since black lives matter as an organization has a 61% support rating amongst the American people, (Morning Consult), which is a 42% turnaround since march 2017. But, the administration did not follow through. Instead, they responded with more police aggression and inflammatory rhetoric, leading the American people to vehemently disagree with him once again. According to a Pew Research national poll, only 37% of Americans agreed with Trump’s response to the protests and to top it all off, he is now deploying federal agents to several major cities and judging by past events, that surely won’t go down well with the public.
Some are saying the writing seems to be on the wall for the President, and the past couple of months might be a nail in the coffin for his fate this coming November. But, at this point, it seems that President Trump will need a miracle to save his campaign, and it does not seem that he is looking for one.